Championship Weekend:
There’s a reason why I don’t bet (or make huge ones) in sports.
There’s just so many things that can happen, particularly in the NFL playoffs, that you really don’t know until you get there.
Some of that happened this past weekend as there was a huge upset for a team who doesn’t get a lot of respect.
AFC Championship: №6 Tennessee Titans at №2 Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, that team won and beat the Super Bowl favorite-Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night. It started with one interception that went off the hands of Mark Andrews and then Tennessee had their way, quickly going up 14–3, never letting up, winning, 28–12, and going to their first AFC Championship Game since 2002.
Workhorse Derrick Henry had 30 carries for 195 yards and threw this little jump pass for a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill became the first quarterback since Terry Bradshaw to throw for less than 100 yards in back-to-back postseason wins. He was 7-of-14 for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who has been known for using aggressive analytics this season, had his team go for it on fourth-and-1 multiple times with his star dual-threat quarterback, Lamar Jackson, coming up short each time, hitting the wrong hole. This being a Ravens team that has had their way on fourth down this season, converting on 17-of-24 attempts.
Jackson may have had a career-high in attempts (59) and yards (365), but that was only because of the deficit as he only completed 31 with a touchdown, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble. He still ran 20 times for 143 yards. Mark Ingram, who has been the other running threat, was limited, coming back from a calf injury suffered in Week 16.
As I said before, you can’t expect to always win when your quarterback runs half the time as the Titans limited him in the early going, forcing Jackson to throw a bunch, causing him to make mistakes. Defenses tighten in the playoffs and the Titans did that, forcing turnovers, getting big stops and running the ball. And the 20-year drought continues of the (probable) MVP not winning the Super Bowl. Not many teams win more than 12 games in a row.
The following day, it looked like another AFC South (or Houston) team would get a big upset. The Texans jumped out to a shocking 24–0 lead early in the second quarter. Twenty-one of those points came on a long touchdown pass by DeShaun Watson, a blocked punt returned for one and a muffed punt at the 10-yard line.
But then Kansas City, which also used to be the (Dallas) Texans, decided they would also come back in similar fashion with their high-charged offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, scoring 28 straight points to end the half with the lead. It started with a long kickoff return that ended in points two plays later. Then it was a silly fake punt on Houston’s own end of the field, which led to a touchdown. Then the Texans fumbled on a kickoff return, leading to another score. After a punt, the Chiefs went straight down and got another one.
They ended up scoring touchdowns on seven consecutive drives, setting a playoff record. Mahomes out-dueled his fellow 2017 first-round pick, throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns as the Chiefs won, 51–31, advancing to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year after not going for 25 years.
I’m really fine with whoever wins this game as the Chiefs will face another team with Texas ties, the former Houston Oilers. But I’m obviously a big Mahomes fan since he went to Texas Tech, so I’m a little more in favor of KC.
Anyways, the Chiefs showed how dangerous they are when you put them up against a bad defense. The Titans may not have a top-10 defense as they rank 24th against the pass, but they are getting the stops. Tannehill, who went to Texas A&M, is making the early touchdown passes and nobody is stopping the 6'3" Henry, a true wrecking ball who nobody wants to tackle. They just beat the defending champs and the postseason favorites.
But the Chiefs are as hot as the Titans, if not hotter as they’ve won seven straight. These teams met in Week 10 where the Titans won 35–32 at home. Henry has had great success when facing the Chiefs. Two years ago in the wild card, he rushed for 156 yards in a win. This year, he had 185 yards.
However, this Chiefs’ run defense has improved since then. They’ve only allowed one 100-yard rusher in Josh Jacobs, but it didn’t matter as they blew Oakland out. It’s been nine years since a №6 seed has made it to a conference championship when both Green Bay and the New York Jets made it, and the former advancing and winning the Super Bowl.
Mahomes is back to playing like himself and not the guy coming off injury in that Week 10 matchup. I just see it as the Chiefs’ time, ending the 50-year drought, going to Super Bowl 54. It’ll be close, though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Tennessee won another road game as Henry will get 100 yards, win or lose. I just think this Chiefs’ offensive machine is too much. Chiefs 27, Titans 20.
NFC Championship: №2 Green Bay Packers at №1 San Francisco 49ers
No shocker who’s in this matchup. On Saturday afternoon, the 49ers’ defense dominated Minnesota, allowing only seven first downs and 147 yards, the lowest yardage allowed in franchise playoff history. Dalvin Cook was held to just 18 yards on nine carries. Tevin Coleman had 105 yards rushing and two touchdowns as San Francisco controlled the Vikings, 27–10.
Closing the weekend with the other NFC matchup, Green Bay got out to a big 21–3 lead at halftime. But you know Seattle is never out of the game with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Like he has in many playoff games, he led them back, cutting the lead to 28–23.
On third-and-8, needing a second first down to end the game, Aaron Rodgers threw a pass to Jimmy Graham, who converted. Or did he? He looked to be short. The referees ruled him at the marker and didn’t have enough evidence to overturn as the Packers won with another controversial call. It turns out the yellow marker you see on TV was a little ahead of the actual marker.
This wasn’t the first time for a controversial call in a big Packers game. They had the Dez-no catch in the 2014 divisional round against Dallas. Of course, things went Seattle’s way in 2012 with the “Fail Mary.” This one looks like the officials got it right though.
Aaron Jones had two rushing touchdowns. Davante Adams had eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay was 9-of-14 on third down.
The last time these teams met was in San Francisco where the home team dominated, 37–8. The Packers have been getting a little lucky all year, winning close games. The 49ers just got all their star defensive players back. Expect them to use that pass rush, which includes five first-round picks, against a not-so-great Green Bay offensive line, getting to Rodgers, as they’ll win handily, going to their first Super Bowl since 2012. 49ers 31, Packers 17.
So there you have it. A 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl in Miami. A great defense against a great offense. A young offensive whiz against an older offensive genius. A game-managing quarterback against a future great one. This is the Super Bowl everybody wants to see (or at least me because of Green Bay). Last year’s conference championship saw two teams people were angry about winning. What will happen this year?
