NBA Finals: Dynasty vs. Foreign
When Kevin Durant signed with the Golden State Warriors three years ago, he expected to be in the Finals every season. He just didn’t expect to be on the sidelines in one of them.
When Kawhi Leonard was traded from the San Antonio Spurs to the Toronto Raptors last summer, it was expected for his team to compete in his final contract year before entering free agency.
The above has happened to the two best basketball players in the world. The Warriors, who are entering their fifth-straight Finals, the most consecutive Finals appearances since the Boston Celtics went to ten from 1957–66, will take on the Raptors, who have never been to the Finals since they started as an expansion team in Toronto in 1995 and are the first Canadian and non-U.S. team to make it.
Before I preview this Finals matchup, let’s go over what happened in the conference finals.
In the Western Conference Finals, Golden State kept fear into the hearts of the Portland Trail Blazers throughout the series, sweeping them as the latter was making its first appearance in the Western Conference Finals since 2000. In Game 1, Stephen Curry scored 36 points with nine threes in a blowout. In Games 2–4, the Warriors came from behind by 17, 18 and 17-point deficits chronologically to win. Curry averaged 36.5 points in the series with 146 total, the most ever for a player in an NBA sweep. Draymond Green had back-to-back triple doubles in Games 3 and 4.
All of this coming without the best player in the world: Kevin Durant, who injured his right calf in Game 5 of the second round. Not to mention they’ve been without their star center DeMarcus Cousins since Game 2 of the first round when he tore his left quad. The Warriors are 5–0 (6–0 if you count the fourth quarter of that Game 5) since being without both players.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, it was a little more interesting. In Game 1 with Toronto in control of the first three periods and Milwaukee showing rust in another season opener, Bucks center Brook Lopez decided to take over with 13 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter, leading his team to victory. In Game 2, six players were in double figures for the Bucks, including MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo with 30, in a blowout.
Going back home to Toronto in a 0–2 hole, most people thought the Raptors were done, but they had other plans. Leonard fought through soreness in his right leg as he had his fourth-straight game with at least 30 points as the Raptors won a hard-fought Game 3 in double overtime. In Game 4, it was Toronto’s turn to have six players in double figures in a blowout win.
In a pivotal Game 5 returning to Milwaukee while facing a deficit going into the fourth quarter, Leonard didn’t shy away from the challenge, having another dominant game, scoring 35 points with a career-high nine assists, five three-pointers, and seven rebounds. Raptors reserve guard Fred VanVleet scored 21 points with seven threes.
Coming back home to Toronto with a chance to make it to their first-ever NBA Finals, the Raptors faced another second-half deficit, this time as big as 15 points, but they decided it was their time as they went on a game-changing 26–3 run. Leonard had 27 points and 17 rebounds as Toronto made history advancing to the biggest stage while overcoming an 0–2 hole and winning four straight.
An interesting stat that changed the series was when Leonard started guarding Antetokounmpo more. He did it for less than 10 possessions per game in the first two matches where the Bucks won. Then Raptors head coach Nick Nurse made the adjustment for the former Defensive Player of the Year to guard the 6'11" Greek Freak as that average went to 35.5 possessions the rest of the way.
As a result, the MVP candidate only averaged 15.9 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs when guarded by 6'7" Leonard. To compare, second on the list was Blake Griffin with 31.2.
Talk about making a difference.
For the series, the Greek Freak struggled, averaging 22.7 points, a 44.5 shooting percent and four turnovers, all of which were well below his regular season averages.
That’s the advantage the Raptors have with the best two-way player in the game. That’s why they made the trade: to give themselves a better shot at a championship and not just be a good team.
The obvious thing that makes this Finals weird is there’s no Durant — at least for now. Like the two previous years with he and LeBron in the Finals, it’s now him and Leonard as arguably the best two players in the league. (James Harden and the Greek Freak are the top MVP candidates for the year, but they’re not the best all-around players.) Hopefully, he comes back, so we get to see these two go at it and also for there not to be a bunch of what-if’s.
The strange part is that the Warriors are 31–1 since March 2017 when Durant is out and Curry is in. With Curry, Thompson and Green right now, it’s like the glory days as they’re running around more, passing the ball, setting screens for each other and maybe even having more fun?
Durant doesn’t want to hear that, which is another reason besides not getting along with Green for why he will more than likely be leaving the Warriors via free agency this summer.
As far as timeline, Durant is out for tonight’s Game 1, but he did travel with the team to Toronto, which is where Game 2 will also occur. He has yet to practice. I don’t think he’ll play in Sunday’s game but him being on the sidelines for the first time since his injury makes me think he has a shot at returning during the Finals. I wouldn’t bet my money on it as it sounds more serious than most thought.
Now as far as Cousins, who people forget about, he will return tonight for the first time since a month-and-a-half ago. As head coach Steve Kerr said, if it was the regular season, he would have been back sooner as they could ease him in, but you can’t do that at this time of the year, especially for a big man, which means he must really be ready to play.
And don’t forget that Andre Iguodala will also return to play tonight after coming out of Game 3 against Portland due to calf tightness.
And the Raptors have an injury that they’re watching too. OG Anunoby, a key bench player, has a chance of coming back this series after undergoing an emergency appendectomy right before the start of the playoffs.
For experience, the Warriors have a lot. Curry, Thompson, Green, Iguodala and Shaun Livingston have been to the last five Finals with Golden State. If Durant gets to play, it will be his fourth as well as for Kevon Looney if you count 2016 when he wasn’t getting minutes. It’s the third for Andrew Bogut, who was around for the 2015–16 Finals teams.
Even though it’s the first appearance for the Raptors, they still have some experience. Leonard and Danny Green had back-to-back showings in 2013–14 with the Spurs, the former winning MVP in ’14. Ibaka made it in 2012 with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
When you put together all the rings won by Warrior players, it’s 21. Toronto has two.
As far as matchups are concerned, you have to wonder who’s going to guard the hottest players in the postseason with Curry and Leonard.
The Warriors are used to their Eastern Conference opponent usually being easier as it was with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers for four straight years out of that weak East, but this year, it’s the opposite.
All of their opponents in the west had 53 wins or less. The Los Angeles Clippers had zero star power. The Houston Rockets showed once again why they can’t get to the big stage. Portland felt inexperienced and afraid.
Toronto has 58 wins, one better than Golden State, as they’ll have the home-court advantage unlike the previous four years. The Raptors have a better defense, much better than all those Cavs teams. Not only has Leonard won DPOY but so has veteran center Marc Gasol. Veteran forward Serge Ibaka has been on the All-Defensive Team three times. Pascal Siakam almost made the squad but got beat out ironically by Warriors guard Klay Thompson. They’re going to be a lot more physical on guys like Curry, much like the Cavs did in 2016.
For Curry, I would expect to see Kyle Lowry but also some of VanVleet. Since 2016–17, the undrafted VanVleet has limited Curry to 21 points per 100 plays. No doubt, he’s going to need help and Curry will have his moments, but that could be a factor.
For Kawhi, the best bet is Green, who has limited him to 28 points per 100 possessions since the 2016–17 season. Iguodala and Thompson haven’t done as well with 35 and 49. Of course if Durant returns, all of this could change.
Another key will be the Raptors stopping the Warriors in transition, who excel at gaining momentum off missed shots and turnovers. During the regular season, Toronto had the most efficient defense after missing a shot on the offensive end, giving up just 105 points per 100 possessions off a misfire, according to the data site, Inpredictable. The Raptors also don’t turn the ball over a lot, only doing so on 12.2 percent of plays in the postseason, which would be the best in the regular season.
While the Raptors are better than last season’s Cavs, they have some resemblance. Leonard is the star of this team. Everybody else is a guess if they’re going to have a great game. And don’t get me wrong. They have some good role players who are still more consistent than those Cavs. Lowry, who is slowing down at 33, can still go off at times. Veterans like Ibaka and Gasol have had years of playing great basketball. The unknown VanVleet is pretty hot, shooting 82.4 percent from three-point range in the last three games, the highest in NBA postseason history for a player of at least 15 attempts. (Not to mention his son was born the day before he started this streak.)
In today’s NBA, you gotta have more than one star if you want to win a championship. The Raptors are going to have to turn back the clock on some of these players if they want to win it and I’m just not sure if Kawhi’s right leg is going to hold up for him to play at the level he’s been playing for most of the playoffs.
For the Warriors, they’re just having too much fun to lose. Curry is playing like the MVP of those back-to-back regular seasons of 2015–16, having his best stretch of a postseason since Durant was sidelined. Green might be having his best postseason yet. Thompson hasn’t been quite as consistent, but for the most part you know you can count on him, especially in big games.
Curry has never won a Finals MVP. This is his chance as he’s the ultimate favorite to win it and I think he does it, continuing his magic and legacy with four rings. I had them beating Toronto before the postseason started and I’m sticking with them. They have too much experience. Having Cousins back gives them that post presence on both ends. They barely lose with Curry and no Durant. They’re too talented to lose with Durant. We’ll see ultimately if they may or may not need him to beat Toronto, but either way, I have them winning in six, doing so at their final game at Oracle Arena.
As excited as I am about watching the Finals, I have to address the offseason implications as I share my final thoughts.
People liked the old, pure Warriors until Durant came and made the competition too easy, which is another reason for him leaving as he’s bored. It makes you wonder if he’s played his last game. This has a similar feel to when LeBron couldn’t three-peat with Miami and went back to Cleveland. (Except KD won’t go back to Oklahoma City.) Or he and/or his team could just win again and he still leaves.
Either way, it’s been a heck of a run for Golden State as their run could certainly end if Durant and/or Thompson, who is also a free agent, leave. (And I’ve certainly enjoyed pulling for them in the playoffs and Finals as my Dallas Mavericks have been down.)
On the other side, Leonard is going to be a free agent after one of the best playoff performances we’ve seen that’s akin to LeBron last year.
Then I have to ask the question: Do you think Toronto fans are more interested in this historic Finals run or where he goes in July?
With all this free agency and trade talk that’s been going on all season, isn’t it time that we just talk about basketball as we’re going into the Finals? If you’re like me, you’re tired of hearing about this offseason drama that’s really for the offseason. It’s just to create drama and get people’s attention.
Let’s enjoy the Finals, which have been pretty entertaining as far as action on the court is concerned in recent years with the evolution of the three-point shot. And let’s enjoy a Finals that might be more interesting than years past. Isn’t basketball about winning championships, not who plays for who? The action starts tonight.
